PO.PS01.02 · 人群科学
匈牙利全国癌症发病率与死亡率趋势的全人群分析
An entire-population analysis of nationwide trends in cancer incidence and mortality in hungary
作者与单位 Authors & Affiliations
摘要 Abstract
中文摘要
背景：匈牙利面临持续较高的癌症负担，然而对主要肿瘤类型人群层面趋势的详细纵向评估仍然有限。了解发病率、死亡率和患病率的变化对于优化筛查策略和医疗系统规划至关重要。
方法：分析了来自匈牙利国家健康保险基金（NEAK）的全国肿瘤学记录，该记录完整覆盖约1000万的全部人口，涵盖五种最常见的癌症类型：乳腺癌（C50）、结直肠癌（C18）、肺癌（C34）、前列腺癌（C61）和胃癌（C16）。分别计算年度发病率和死亡率，而患病率值代表两年汇总的全国计数。所有指标均按两性和所有年龄组进行汇总。数据与匈牙利国家癌症登记处的既定统计数据进行了验证。时间变化代表2018年全国基线数据与截至2024年近期数据之间的差异。
结果：五种肿瘤类型在全国范围内表现出一致的方向性变化。乳腺癌发病率上升4.98%，死亡率上升42.69%，粗患病率从37,887增加至39,773。肺癌发病率下降10.61%，死亡率下降3.02%，粗患病率从31,829降至28,452。结直肠癌发病率下降2.29%，死亡率上升21.24%，粗患病率从27,589降至26,956。前列腺癌发病率上升9.51%，死亡率上升32.55%，粗患病率从19,046增加至20,858。胃癌发病率上升16.45%，死亡率下降16.57%，粗患病率从5,770降至4,814。这些模式在两性和所有年龄组中均可观察到，表明这是广泛的人群层面变化，而非年龄或性别特异性效应。已建立一个网络工具以可视化这些趋势，可在www.epidemplot.com访问。
结论：匈牙利全国数据揭示，尽管发病率趋势各异，但乳腺癌、前列腺癌和结直肠癌的死亡率大幅上升，表明早期检测和治疗路径存在关键缺口。肺癌在发病率和死亡率上均表现出协调一致的下降。这些发现凸显了针对特定肿瘤类型改进筛查项目和照护协调的必要性。这一标准化框架能够支持持续的全国监测并扩展至其他恶性肿瘤。
查看英文原文 English abstract
BACKGROUND: Hungary faces a persistently high cancer burden, yet detailed, longitudinal assessments of population-level trends across major tumor types remain limited. Understanding shifts in incidence, mortality, and prevalence is essential for refining screening strategies and healthcare-system planning.
METHODS: Nationwide oncology records from the Hungarian National Health Insurance Fund (NEAK), completely covering the entire population of appr. 10 million, were analyzed for the five most common cancer types: breast (C50), colorectal (C18), lung (C34), prostate (C61), and stomach (C16). Annual incidence and mortality were calculated separately, while prevalence values represent two-year aggregated national counts. All metrics were summarized across both sexes and all age groups. Data were validated against established statistics from the Hungarian National Cancer Registry. Temporal changes represent differences between national baseline figures from 2018 and recent data through 2024.
RESULTS: The five tumor types exhibited consistent directional shifts nationwide. Breast cancer incidence increased 4.98%, mortality rose 42.69%, and crude prevalence increased from 37,887 to 39,773. Lung cancer incidence declined 10.61%, mortality decreased 3.02%, and crude prevalence fell from 31,829 to 28,452. Colorectal cancer incidence decreased 2.29%, mortality increased 21.24%, and crude prevalence declined from 27,589 to 26,956. Prostate cancer incidence rose 9.51%, mortality increased 32.55%, and crude prevalence increased from 19,046 to 20,858. Stomach cancer incidence increased 16.45%, mortality decreased 16.57%, and crude prevalence fell from 5,770 to 4,814. These patterns were observed across both sexes and all age groups, indicating broad population-level shifts rather than age- or sex-specific effects. A web tool was established to visualize these trends and is available at www.epidemplot.com.
CONCLUSIONS: Hungarian nationwide data reveal substantial mortality increases for breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers despite divergent incidence trends, indicating critical gaps in early detection and treatment pathways. Lung cancer demonstrated coordinated declines in both incidence and mortality. These findings highlight the need for targeted improvements in screening programs and care coordination for specific tumor types. This standardized framework enables ongoing national surveillance and expansion to additional malignancies.
利益披露 Disclosure
Z. Nagy, None..
B. Balint, None..
B. Gyorffy, None.