PO.CL09.03 · 临床研究

眼睑恶性肿瘤在增加吗？基于SEER数据库对Merkel细胞癌、黑色素瘤和皮脂腺癌的人群分析

Eyelid malignancies on the rise? A population-based analysis of merkel cell carcinoma, melanoma, and sebaceous carcinoma from the SEER database

编号 5412 展板 2 时间 4/21 09:00–12:00 区域 Section 49 主讲 Ahmad Alzein

分会场 Retrospective Observational Studies

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作者与单位 Authors & Affiliations

Said Yaseen¹, Bashar I. Almaraziq², Shaimaa A. Abdelmoneim³, Ahmed S. Al Sakini⁴, Mohamed Ahmed Ali⁵, Joud K. Alhousani¹, Leen Abu Rabi¹, Ahmad Farouk Alzein⁶, Issam Khourshid⁷, Shahd Alsharif¹, Hamza Khoursheed¹, Mohammad Almajali¹, Hashem Abu Serhan⁸

¹Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan,²Hashemite University, Zarqa, Jordan,³Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population, Alexandria, Egypt,⁴University of Baghdad, Baghdad, Iraq,⁵South Valley University, Qena, Egypt,⁶University of Illinois Chicago, Chicago, IL,⁷Victoria Hospital, Scotland, Kirkcaldy, United Kingdom,⁸Hamad Medical Coorporation, Doha, Qatar

摘要 Abstract

中文摘要

目的：本研究旨在分析眼睑恶性黑色素瘤（MM）、Merkel细胞癌（MCC）和皮脂腺癌（SGC）的时间发病率趋势，并利用基于人群的数据预测未来模式。方法：利用监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库2000-2021年的数据进行回顾性分析。应用时间序列模型，包括自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）和神经网络自回归（NNAR），估算每10万人的发病率（IR），并按肿瘤类型、性别、年龄和种族分层。模型选择基于最小化均方根误差（RMSE）。使用泊松回归评估年龄和性别对IR的影响。结果：这些恶性肿瘤的总体IR从2000年至2015年呈上升趋势，随后略有下降，并在2021年再次上升；10年预测显示将持续温和增长。亚型分析揭示了不同的趋势：MM发病率预计将上升，而MCC和SGC发病率预计将保持相对稳定。泊松回归确定年龄>60岁为高度显著的风险因素，显著增加了MM（IRR 17.1）和SGC（IRR 25.4）的发病率比（IRR）。性别不是显著因素。种族差异明显；白人个体的MM发病率最高，而亚洲或太平洋岛民个体的SGC发病率最高。结论：眼睑恶性肿瘤表现出不同的模式。MCC具有最高的转移风险，皮脂腺腺癌因种族而异，手术仍是关键。

查看英文原文 English abstract

Purpose: This study sought to analyze temporal incidence trends for malignant melanoma (MM), Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC), and sebaceous gland carcinoma (SGC) of the eyelid and to predict future patterns using population-based data. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using the Surveillance, Epidemiology,and End Results (SEER) database from 2000-2021. Time-series models, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Neural Network Autoregression (NNAR), were applied to estimate incidence rates (IRs) per 100,000, stratified by tumor type, sex, age, and race. Model selection was based on minimizing Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Poisson regression was used to assess the impact of age and sex on IRs. Results: The overall IR for these malignancies showed an increase from 2000 to 2015,followed by a slight decline and a subsequent rise in 2021; a 10-year forecast projects a continued modest increase. Subtype analysis revealed variable trends: MM incidence is projected to rise, while MCC and SGC incidence rates are forecasted to remain relatively stable. Poisson regression identified age >60 years as a highly significant risk factor, dramatically increasing the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for both MM (IRR 17.1) and SGC (IRR 25.4). Gender was not a significant factor. Racial disparities were evident; White individuals had the highest incidence of MM, whereas Asian or Pacific Islander individuals had the highest incidence of SGC. Conclusion: Malignant eyelid tumors exhibit distinct patterns. MCC has the highest metastatic risk, sebaceous adenocarcinoma varies by race, and surgery remains key

利益披露 Disclosure

S. Yaseen, None.. B. I. Almaraziq, None.. S. A. Abdelmoneim, None.. A. S. Al Sakini, None.. M. Ali, None.. J. K. Alhousani, None.. L. Abu Rabi, None.. A. F. Alzein, None.. I. Khourshid, None.. S. Alsharif, None.. H. Khoursheed, None.. M. Almajali, None.. H. Abu Serhan, None.

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