Combining circulating tumor cells and cancer associated macrophage-like cells enhances risk stratification models in pan-cancer metastatic disease

Background: In metastatic cancer, Circulating Tumor cells (CTCs) are established prognostic indictors of patients (pts) less likely to respond to new lines of systemic therapy, with poor clinical outcomes, such as shorter progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). However, CTCs are typically found in specific malignancies (breast, prostate & colon), often in <20% of pts with metastatic disease, and pts without CTCs may also rapidly progress. Recently, an inflammatory pro-tumorigenic macrophage emanating from tumor stroma (i.e. Cancer associated macrophage-like cell [CAML]) was found in >90% of metastatic cancer pts, and whose phagocytic engorgement appears to correlate with poor outcomes, independent of CTCs. As CTCs and CAMLs are isolated in conjunction from a single blood sample, and both are prognostic for outcomes, we evaluated their utilization prior to induction of new systemic therapy in 6 types of metastatic cancer to model pt risk stratification based on 2 year outcomes. Methods: A prospective 2 year blind multi-institutional study was undertaken to model CTCs and CAMLs in prognosticating outcomes prior to induction of a new line of systemic therapy (n=233) in metastatic: Breast (n=60), Prostate (n=40), Pancreas (n=25), Colon (n=28), Renal Cell Carcinoma (RCC) (n=39), and Lung (n=40). Blood was filtered by CellSieve TM filters with subtypes of CTCs & hyper-enlarged CAMLs (≥100µm) enumerated. A machine learning algorithm was trained on this initial data set to develop predictive models which could stratify pt populations by risk for likelihood of PFS & OS over 2 years, including known clinical variables. Results: CTCs were absent in 80% (n=185/233) of pts, and their absence was prognostic for better PFS (HR=1.6, p=0.046), but not OS (HR=1.3, p=0.2045). In parallel, enlarged CAMLs (≥100µm) were found in 28% (n=51/185) of pts without CTCs, and were also prognostic for worse PFS (HR=2.0, p=0.0082) and OS (HR=1.9, p=0.0412). Specifically, CTCs were found in 55% (n=33) breast, 20% (n=8) prostate, 12% (n=3) pancreas, 11% (n=3) colon, 0% (n=0) RCC, and 0% (n=0) lung pts. Enlarged CAMLs were found in 45% (n=27) breast, 20% (n=8) prostate, 44% (n=11) pancreas, 44% (n=17) colon, 18% (n=7) RCC and 20% (n=8) lung pts. Overall, models indicated that ≥1 CTC (n=47) had mPFS=3.9 & mOS=14.9, while pts with 0 CTCs and ≥100µm CAMLs (n=51) had a mPFS=6.9 & mOS=13.8, and pts with 0 CTCs and <100µm CAMLs (n=134) had a mPFS=10.7 & mOS>24 months. Conclusions: These initial models confirm that both CTCs and enlarged CAMLs are prognostic indicators of worse PFS & OS. The simultaneous quantification both CTCs and CAMLs allows for more accurate pan-cancer risk stratification in an array of cancer pt populations. Additional clinical variables incorporated into the models may allow better risk subtyping and possibly forecast optimal treatment regimens.